Communication equipment

Release Date:2019-08-09

Since 2017, the domestic demand for industrial robots has increased dramatically, which has driven the demand for precision reducers, more and more people have seen opportunities in this field. Industry insiders said that compared with the rigid requirements of RV Reducer "double three" (at least three years of R & D time and 300 million yuan investment), the R & D time of harmonic reducer is slightly shorter and the capital investment is relatively less, so many enterprises have chosen to enter the harmonic field. In addition, some domestic harmonic enterprises are further expanding their production capacity.

At present, there are many enterprises in the field of harmonic reducers with annual production capacity of 100000 sets of harmonic reducers, and some leading enterprises even have larger production capacity. However, since the second half of 2018, the growth rate of domestic industrial robot shipments has slowed down. According to GGII, the sales volume of industrial robots in China is 188000 in 2019, and the capacity of reducer manufacturers is far higher than the demand of robot market.

In the past two years, there will be a reshuffle in the harmonic reducer industry, "said a person in charge of the reducer manufacturer, who did not want to be named." I think the enterprises that can survive in the end, one of them is compassionate. They regard the harmonic reducer as "true love" and can make products in a down-to-earth way; the other is with strong financial support, and at the same time they especially hope to engage in the production of harmonic reducer. Of the company. " However, he also pointed out that the second type of enterprises had better have previous technical experience and be able to "transplant" into the production of harmonic reducers to support them to make products in a short period of time, coupled with financial support, so as to ensure their survival.

"The market competition is too fierce now. Although there is financial support, the time left for enterprises to accumulate technology may not be so long, especially with the passage of time, the pressure on capital will be more and more, and many actual situations will deviate from the original intention. Therefore, for some new enterprises, the process of strategic realization will be relatively long "

"Shuffling is bound to happen this year, and the middle-class enterprises in the industry are most likely to be washed out." Jiang Wenbin, general manager of Julong technology robot reducer business department, said that the basis for this conclusion is that this year's ontology enterprises will experience a round of reshuffle. "More and more ontology enterprises will enter the price war next, so there will also be many reducer manufacturers to cooperate with ontology enterprises in price war. I think this situation cannot be changed in two or three years. Those manufacturers who have a certain breakthrough in application and take the high-end route will not be affected by the price war, and will certainly survive in the shuffle, while those ontology manufacturers located in the middle end will have a survival crisis, and will be able to see it in the first half of the year. "

 "Therefore, for manufacturers of harmonic reducers, they should either adopt the low-cost strategy or enter the domestic manufacturers that take the high-end route, so as to survive. Those harmonic reducer manufacturers, which are also located in the middle end, can't survive if they don't open up more markets, but stick to the field of robots. Especially after the expansion, the depreciation of personnel, plant and equipment will be a large amount of expenditure, but if the sales cannot go on, it is difficult to use the power of capital alone. " Jiang Wenbin said.

 In 2017, the popularity of precision reducer made the Japanese reducer manufacturers represented by HD (hamenaco) in short supply, and the delivery period was once extended to 10 months or even one year, which provided a huge opportunity for many domestic manufacturers. Recently, however, it has been reported that hamenaco has completed production expansion, doubled its production capacity and shortened its delivery cycle to two months. Will the strategy adjustment of Japanese manufacturers have adverse effects on domestic harmonic manufacturers?

 "The threat is there. The production capacity and delivery time may be competitive advantages, but at this stage, it will not have a great impact on the domestic harmonic reducer." The head of the reducer manufacturer, who asked not to be named, said, "in the past, Japanese products have impacted many markets through high-quality and low-cost products, but now domestic reducer manufacturers have no less ability in this respect than Japanese enterprises."

"Once the opportunity is missed, it's hard to come back. HD has not yet expanded its production in 2017, so it gives Chinese harmonic enterprises an opportunity. When the market starts to recognize the domestic reducer, the situation will be irreversible. At the end of the day, you will only have to compete for cost performance and delivery time. " "So domestic harmonic manufacturers should still thank the domestic reducer manufacturers who were at the forefront at the beginning. They let domestic industrial robots use domestic reducers, and they have confidence in domestic reducers, which has led more domestic robot enterprises to use domestic reducer products," he said.

 Jiang Wenbin believes that HD is positioned in the high-end market, but it will not pose a real threat to domestic high-end harmonic manufacturers. "Domestic high-end harmonic reducers are still in the stage of mutual struggle, and they are not on the same track as HD," said Jiang Wenbin. Moreover, due to price war and other factors, the market positioning of domestic harmonic reducers is not too high in general, so the price of domestic high-end products is limited to some extent.

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